I think ^(link) therefore I err

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Election Predictions from CoastWatcher

My inside the beltway guest blogger has a few things to say about the coming elections.
There’s something happening here….what it is ain’t exactly clear….

During the election returns of 2000 and 2004, I watched and both times, told those people around me that George W. Bush would win. I didn’t say that because I wanted him to (I did) I said it because that’s what my analysis showed….In 2000, I watched and when the networks “called” Florida for Gore, I looked at my watch and said “wait, there’s another time zone out in western Florida that’s filled with the military and conservative folks”, I left for dinner with a friend and when we came back, the election was “moved” back to tie…as if what these super-geniuses at the networks said actually mattered….in 2004, watching the returns in a bar, those around me were becoming despondent that Kerry would win using Ohio as the guidepost and once again, both being from Ohio but more importantly, having watched the almost daily averages in RealClearPolicitcs.com, I just didn’t believe what the network talking heads NOR the so called exit polls were saying and kept saying Bush would win. This brings me to today, while I could be completely wrong….as I look at the races, and read the breathless “reporting” from the media that one (for sure) and probably both Houses will go Democratic, I just don’t see it. I think, rather, I know that’s what the mainstream media want, it’s just that wishing doesn’t make it so….

For all the vitriol surrounding our electorate, we are (still) a center to center right nation. Since Ronald Reagan, the nation has elected Republicans and one Democrat, Bill Clinton who ran (quite brilliantly) a centrist and populist election and reelection. Congress kept moving towards the Republicans and eventually, both Houses were captured. Now, you’ve got this left/liberal/progressive phenomenon carrying on since the self destructive scream of Howard Dean which has created this far left, destructive Democratic Underground and more importantly, the Daily Kos crowd. Look at the rants they make attacking Joe Lieberman, especially for the unforgivable “kiss.” These folks are not about leadership, they are not about governing, they aren’t even about running successful elections, they are about hate, attacking dissenters and anyone who opposes them, and they are about hating anything that’s not their style of Amerika. Their site’s founder exposed their agenda quite brilliantly when after the 4 American contractors were killed in Falluja Iraq and their bodies savagely displayed, he gave the now famous response “screw them.” He has since tried to explain his response but Jane Fonda has better explained why she played guitar for those poor beleaguered Communist anti-aircraft batteries, and she has never succeeded.

Which brings me to the media. Put simply, the majority of the liberal East Coast/West Coast educated and spawned “media elite” still cannot get past this fellow George W. Bush. They don’t know whether he’s just plain stupid or a son of wealth and privilege. They can use either for their loathing of the man, and loath they do. I guarantee, during this NKorea crisis, every time the President says the word “Nukular” a synapse fires in Chris Matthews head and he asks himself, how could this idiot or as he likes to say, “this crowd” (of neocons, non-military, etc, etc) ever get elected AND then reelected????? The media’s reliance on the polls is another really dangerous thing to do. Despite me citing polls earlier, I think polling is becoming increasingly unreliable because frankly, people just ignore polling calls. For those with lives, jobs, families, a polling call is every bit as annoying as an uninvited political call when you are sitting down to dinner. So, when I read today, article after article of how this electorate is tracking left, that there is a throw the Republican’s out mood, I just wonder. Is there disgust with many things going on in Washington, of course. Are people concerned about the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (especially because of the incessant negative reporting) yes. Are conservatives angry at the increased spending, yes. Does this whole Page scandal make you want to go take a shower and throw Foley out of office (and probably in jail) for predatory behavior, absolutely. But, is there this mass of teeming people ready to expel the Republicans and welcome Democrats, I don’t see it. As they say, all politics is local.

I do see one thing though, there is still a mass of people in the center, who love their country and sure wish there were some more Democrats in the middle that were strong on defense and foreign policy. Where are the Sam Nunn’s and John Glenn’s? I think the Daily Kos crowd has jumped the Shark and when Joe Lieberman gets reelected, there will be a whole new assessment of their tactics and message. And as much as people try and compare the far right’s treatment of Clinton to today’s far left treatment of Bush, there are two major differences. The hate on the left is spewed with filthy mouths, dropping the F-bomb about every line. But the critical piece is as much as the right disliked President Clinton and his policies and his conduct, they never hated America. They never wanted troops killed or failure overseas to tarnish Clinton’s reputation. And in the end, that will be the far left’s undoing and relegation to the Hippy crowd they were during Vietnam.