I think ^(link) therefore I err

Wednesday, February 01, 2006

Egypt and Hamas

Wow! Captain Ed has the scoop on Egypt basically telling the Palestinian Authority to keep the current govt in place until Hamas renounces violence!
I'm going to copy/paste his conclusion because his website is acting weird today - not because I'm a word thief.

This will serve as a blow to Hamas' hopes of replacing Western aid with money from Arab nations. It won't have any impact on Iran, but Egypt's demand for Palestinians to stick to their agreements will set the tone for the rest of the Arab League. No one pretends that the Palestinians have much popularity with Arab nations any more, although they still like to exploit the "Palestinian question" as a rationale for their own oppressive regimes.

Without significant assistance from Arab nations, Hamas has to be completely reliant on Iran for its funding -- and that might well disappear once economic sanctions are in place. The Quartet can put a stranglehold on that funding by freezing Iranian assets and international transfers, making the Iranians a highly unstable partner. They will go bankrupt very quickly if that happens, and it looks like it could happen at any time.

Where does that leave Hamas? They will control the government, which Fatah shrewdly refuses to join, at the very moment it stops functioning. They will fail to meet payrolls, meaning the services for which they supposedly got elected will disappear. The army they want to raise won't march on promises for long. They will find themselves in charge while their world collapses around them, and their electorate will learn a lesson about electing unrepentant terrorists as a government. Hopefully, this lesson will not be undercut by Western nations stumbling over themselves yet again to save the Palestinians from their own stupid choices.